The Armenian National Assembly of the fifth convocation that was elected in the general polls on Sunday is due to convene for its first session on May 24.

This proceeds from Article 68 the Armenian constitution that says “the first session of a newly elected National Assembly shall convene on the third Thursday following the election of at least two thirds of the total number of Deputies.”

The preliminary results of the May 6 vote published by the Central Election Commission show five parties and one political bloc clearing the election threshold and entering the 131-seat legislature. These are: the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) – 44.05% (663,066 votes), the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) – 30.20% (454,684 votes), the Armenian National Congress (ANC) – 7.10% (106,910 votes), the Heritage Party – 5.79% (87,095 votes), ARF Dashnaktsutyun – 5.73% (86, 296 votes) and the Orinats Yerkir Party – 5.49% (82,690 votes).

Under the proportional distribution and also considering the number of seats won by representatives of different parties in 41 single-mandate constituencies, in the next National Assembly the six political forces are likely to have the factions of the following strengths: RPA – 69; PAP – 36; ANC – 7; Orinats Yerkir – 6, Dashnaktsutyun – 6 and Heritage – 5. (Two elected deputies are now non-partisan and non-aligned).

Dashnaktsutyun is the biggest loser in terms of representation, shrinking from a 16-member faction down to only six deputies. Orinats Yerkir and Heritage lost two seats each. Meanwhile, in the process the PAP has got the highest increase in the number of seats as compared to their representation in the National Assembly in 2007-2012, with their future faction growing by 11 lawmakers. The RPA is set to have four more mandates.

Given the fact that the RPA wields a clear majority (in fact three more mandates than required for ensuring a quorum and passing most laws), it is in a position to form its own government without the participation of other political forces as a coalition. The RPA has not announced its decision on this account yet.

Another question lingering after the announcement of the preliminary election results is whether the ANC, which only narrowly entered the parliament, will pick its mandates or will prefer boycotting the parliament sessions while trying to keep its supporters mobilized as a street opposition in the run-up to the February 2013 presidential election.

The reactions from the parties expected shortly will provide answers to these and other questions.