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Poll: Campaign brings Republican Party to pole position and consolidates Heritage Party

Poll: Campaign brings Republican Party to pole position and consolidates Heritage Party

Today, European Friends of Armenia (www.EuFoA.org) publishes the results of its poll titled Last Assessment of Pre-Electoral Armenia. This TNS opinion supervised poll with an error margin of ±2,4% was subject to extensive quality controls and conducted by IPSC and EuFoA. The fieldwork with 1600 face-to-face interviews in all regions (marzes) of Armenia took place between 17 and 22 April 2012.

While the campaign period is on-going and can still bring changes, the poll reveals some clear movements as we approach Election Day. Between the two leading parties, Prosperous Armenia remains stable (raw data with “Don’t know” and “refuse to answer”: 26,0%, valid responses: 32,6%) whereas the Republican Party passes to the first place (raw: 33,3%, valid: 40,6%). Among the opposition parties, Heritage gains most strongly (raw: 4%, valid: 6,5%). The ANC, who decided to run as an electoral bloc and hence requires 7% to move into the National Assembly, appears to be stable (raw: 2,9%, valid: 4,3 %), but EuFoA believes that the ANC may be underrated in polling, as supporters of radical opposition parties often refuse to participate in polls.

“From all the data we have seen and the trends we analysed, I personally believe that it is quite likely that all four smaller parties will pass into the National Assembly. We are proud that our poll also shows the motivations for voting, the quality and methods of campaigning, and even the likely seat distribution in the new National Assembly – including most of the direct majoritarian seats.” comments Dr Michael Kambeck, EuFoA’s Secretary General.

EuFoA provides this poll as non-Armenian and therefore non-partisan NGO. To ensure the highest level of independence and quality, this poll has been entirely supervised by the renowned international polling company TNS opinion. “This poll was conducted in line with international standards providing for very reliable data” says Dr Steve Schwarzer, Methodology and Statistics Manager at TNS opinion, Brussels. TNS opinion supervised all steps of this poll, meaning that not only was the methodology agreed with IPSC but also the fieldwork was monitored and the data processing was carefully checked.

EuFoA has commissioned the poll for several reasons. In particular we want to:

  • Raise public awareness about the elections, issues important for the people, and public attitudes towards politics, political parties and their leaders.
  • Compare the results of the poll with those of our “benchmark polls”, commissioned by EuFoA in October 2010 and in March 2012.
  • Contribute to a more meaningful debate, based on political content more than party political propaganda or myths.
  • Increase public transparency and trust in a realistic picture of political life in Armenia.
  • Increase pressure for a good technical conduct of the elections by providing comparative data for the assessments of international observers.

The complete poll report can be found in Armenian and in English on our website at http://www.eufoa.org/en/publications

EuFoA is happy to provide commentary or background analysis in English, German, French, Italian, Polish, Russian and Armenian. Members of the Europe-Armenia Advisory Council may also be available for comments; for enquiries please contact our secretariat.

For more information on EuFoA and the Europe-Armenia Advisory Council, please visit our website at www.eufoa.org.

High resolution picture material is always available on our website and upon request. It is free to use with a reference “Copyright: www.eufoa.org”.